Electoral Support for Tax Cuts

Abstract

The 1980 American presidential election, in which Ronald Reagan pledged to cut federal income taxes by 30%, provides a case study for the electoral impact of tax cuts and the sources of voter support for tax cuts. Probit estimation of a model of the 1980 Carter-Reagan vote reveals that voter preferences on the tax cut are closely associated with individual vote choice. Nearly as many voters opposed as supported Reagan's tax plan, giving him no net increase in his vote share. Individual preferences on the tax cut are more closely associated with expectations about the economic effects of the cut than with race, income, partisanship, or candidate evaluations. Trust in government is also closely related to preferences on the tax cut. Voter support for the 1980 Reagan tax cut was not part of a broad-based tax revolt; rather, it appealed to voters as a policy prescription for solving other, more important economic problems.