Potential Leaks in Hydrocarbon Reservoirs: Costs,Profits and Uncertainties

Abstract

A potentially leaking reservoir has an uncertainty on the volumetric resources it might contain because one does not know the extent to which it might have leaked nor does one know that it actually does contain hydrocarbons ahead of drilling. The economic aspects of such an exploration opportunity are investigated in this paper, where it is shown that not only do the uncertain volumetric aspects play a role in determining potential profitability but, and often more importantly, so do the potential drilling costs and the future selling price of product, both of which are also uncertain. It is the combined interaction of both the volumetric uncertainties and the economic uncertainties that determine the possible worth of the opportunity. Here we show how to determine the parameters that are most important in contributing to the uncertainty on the potential worth. We also show how to estimate the probability of achieving break-even and how to determine which parameters are causing the greatest uncertainty on the break-even probability. In this way decision-makers in a corporation can determine more effectively where to concentrate their efforts to improve the uncertainty of critical parameters, and they also know which are the critical parameters to be addressed. Time, effort, and money are thus spared by not focusing on parameters that play more minor roles in the assessment of a potentially leaking reservoir as an exploration opportunity.