Kidnapping is a common tactic used by insurgent groups. However, why insurgents commit kidnappings remains insufficiently understood. Based on 1,386 group-year observations of 140 insurgents between 1998 and 2012, we analyze conditions driving the within-group temporal changes in their involvement (1 vs 0) versus event-frequency in kidnappings. We find that changes in specific quasi-state activities (i.e., extraction and provision of public services), which may rely on kidnappings for coercive enforcement and social control, predict kidnapping “involvement” only. Meanwhile, general resource and capacity conditions (i.e., territory-control, criminal networks and combat-lethality) influence changes in both kidnapping involvement and event-frequency.
ArajBader. 2005. “Harsh State Repression as a Cause of Suicide Bombing: The Case of the Palestinian–Israeli Conflict.” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism31 (4): 284‐303.
4.
ArjonaAnaNelsonKasfirZachariahMampilly. 2015. “Introduction.” In Rebel Governance in Civil War, edited by ArjonaAKasfirNMampillyZ, 1‐20. NY: Cambridge University Press.
5.
AsalVictorChristopherLinebargerAmiraJadoonGreigMichael. 2021. “Why Some Rebel Organizations Attack Americans.” Defence and Peace Economics32 (6): 708‐725.
6.
AsalVictorHeePark HyunKarlRethemeyerGaryAckerman. 2016. “With Friends like These… Why Terrorist Organizations Ally.” International Public Management Journal19 (1): 1-30.
7.
AsalVictorKarlRethemeyerEricSchoon. 2018. “Replication Data for: "Crime, Conflict and the Legitimacy Trade-off: Explaining Variation in Insurgents' Participation in Crime.” Harvard Dataverse ([dataset]; accessed April 2, 2020). doi:10.7910/DVN/JT6GFR
8.
AsalVictorKarlRethemeyerEricSchoon. 2019. “Crime, Conflict and the Legitimacy Trade-off: Explaining Variation in Insurgents' Participation in Crime.” The Journal of Politics81 (2): 399‐410.
9.
AsalVictorShawnFlaniganOraSzekely. 2022. “Doing Good While Killing: Why Some Insurgent Groups Provide Community Services.” Terrorism and Political Violence34 (4): 835‐855.
10.
BapatNavinBondKanisha. 2012. “Alliances Between Militant Groups.” British Journal of Political Science42 (4): 793‐824.
11.
BoydKatharine. 2016. “Modeling Terrorist Attacks: Assessing Statistical Models to Evaluate Domestic and Ideologically International Attacks.” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism39 (7–8): 712‐748.
BrandPatrick T.GeorgeJustinSandlerTodd. 2016. “Why Concessions Should not be Made to Terrorist Kidnappers.” European Journal of Political Economy44: 41‐52.
14.
BriggsRachel. 2001. The Kidnapping Business. London: Foreign Policy Centre.
15.
CameronColin ATrivediPravin K. 2009. Microeconometrics Using Stata. 1st ed. TX: Stata Press.
16.
CarterBrittneeVanNuys MayaCagilAlbayrak. 2021. “State Sponsorship of Religiously Motivated Terrorism: A Deadly Combination.” Democracy and Security17 (2): 181‐209.
17.
CetorelliValeriaIsaacSassonNazarShabilaGilbertBurnham. 2017. “Mortality and Kidnapping Estimates for the Yazidi Population in the Area of Mount Sinjar, Iraq, in August 2014: A Retrospective Household Survey.” PLoS Medicine14 (5): e1002297.
18.
ClarkeRonaldFelsonMarcus. 1993. “Introduction: Criminology, Routine Activity, and Rational Choice.” In Routine Activity and Rational Choice: Advances in Criminological Theory, edited by ClarkeRFelsonM, Vol. 5, 1‐14. NJ: Transaction.
19.
CohenDara Kay. 2013. “Explaining Rape during Civil War: Cross-national Evidence (1980–2009).” American Political Science Review107 (3): 461‐477.
20.
CoxDavid. 1992. “Causality: Some Statistical Aspects.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society)155 (2): 291‐301.
CrenshawMartha. 1998. “The Logic of Terrorism: Terrorism as the Product of Strategic Choice.” In Origins of Terrorism: Psychologies, Ideologies, Theologies, States of Mind, edited by ReichW., 7‐24. Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson Centre Press.
ForestJames. 2012a. “Global Trends in Kidnapping by Terrorist Groups.” In Global Change, Peace and Security24(3): 311‐330.
31.
ForestJames. 2012b. “Kidnapping by Terrorist Groups, 1970-2010: Is Ideological Orientation Relevant?” Crime and Delinquency58 (5): 769‐797.
32.
FoyKelli. 2015. “Framing Hostage Negotiations: Analysing the Discourse of the US Government and the Islamic State.” Critical Studies on Terrorism8 (3): 516‐531.
33.
GaibulloevKhusravSandlerTodd. 2009. “Hostage Taking: Determinants of Terrorist Logistical and Negotiation Success.” Journal of Peace Research46 (6): 739‐756.
GilbertDanielle.2022. “The Logic of Kidnapping in Civil War: Evidence from Colombia.” American Political Science Review116: 1‐16. doi:10.1017/S0003055422000041
36.
GuptaDipakMundraKusum. 2005. “Suicide Bombing as a Strategic Weapon: An Empirical Investigation of Hamas and Islamic Jihad.” Terrorism and Political Violence17 (4): 573‐598.
37.
HegerLindsayJungDanielleWongWendy H. 2012. “Organizing for Resistance: How Group Structure Impacts the Character of Violence.” Terrorism and Political Violence24 (5): 743‐768.
38.
HoffmanBruce. 2011. “The Rationality of Terrorism and Other Forms of Political Violence: Lessons from the Jewish Campaign in Palestine, 1939–1947.” Small Wars and Insurgencies22 (2): 258‐272.
39.
HorganJohn. 2008. “Deradicalization or Disengagement? A Process in Need of Clarity and a Counterterrorism Initiative in Need of Evaluation.” Perspectives on Terrorism2 (4): 3‐8.
40.
HorowitzMichael C. 2010. “Nonstate Actors and the Diffusion of Innovations: The Case of Suicide Terrorism.” International Organisation64 (1): 33‐64.
IbrahimBelloMukhtarJamilu. 2017. “An Analysis of the Causes and Consequences of Kidnapping in Nigeria.” African Research Review11 (4): 134‐143.
43.
JamesonCelia. 2010. “The ‘Short Step’ from Love to Hypnosis: A Reconsideration of the Stockholm Syndrome.” Journal for Cultural Research14 (4): 337‐355.
44.
KachynovaM. 2015. Nonlethal Violence in Armed Conflict: The Logic of Mass Kidnapping [Master’s thesis. Amsterdam, Netherland: University of Amsterdam]. https://scripties.uba.uva.nl/search?id=570812
45.
KaplanJeffery.2009. “The Lord’s Resistance Army: Millennialism, Violence and the Timeless Dream.” Religious Studies and Theology28 (1): 95‐127.
46.
KilbergJoshua. 2012. “A Basic Model Explaining Terrorist Group Organizational Structure.” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism35 (11): 810‐830.
47.
KoseliMutluNiyaziEkiciErenMurat EChristopherBitner. 2021. “Use of Kidnapping and Extortion as a Tool for Financing Terrorism: The Case of the PKK.” Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression13 (3): 215‐230.
48.
KyddAndrew HWalterBarbara F. 2006. “The Strategies of Terrorism.” International Security31 (1): 49‐80.
49.
MampillyZachariah. 2011. Rebel Rulers: Insurgent Governance and Civilian Life during War. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
50.
MampillyZachariah. 2015. “Performing the Nation-state: Rebel Governance and Symbolic Processes.” In Rebel Governance in Civil War, edited by ArjonaA.KasfirN.MampillyZ., 74‐97. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
51.
MierauJochen O.2015. “The Activity and Lethality of Militant Groups: Ideology, Capacity, and Environment.” Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict8 (1): 23‐37.
52.
MyersDaniel. 2000. “The Diffusion of Collective Violence: Infectiousness, Susceptibility, and Mass Media Networks.” American Journal of Sociology106 (1): 173‐208.
53.
NapoleoniLoretta. 2017. Merchants of Men: How Kidnapping, Ransom and Trafficking Funds Terrorism and ISIS. London: Atlantic Books.
54.
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). 2021. Global Terrorism Database [Data file]. Retrieved fromhttps://www.start.umd.edu/gtd
55.
ObamamoyeBabatunde. 2018. “Navigating the Enigma of Negotiating with a Jihadist Terrorist Group.” African Security11 (4): 397‐417.
56.
O'BrienMcKenzie. 2012. “Fluctuations between Crime and Terror: The Case of Abu Sayyaf's Kidnapping Activities.” Terrorism and Political Violence24 (2): 320‐336.
57.
OlsonMancur. 1993. “Dictatorship, Democracy, and Development.” American Political Science Review87 (3): 567‐576.
PhillipsBrian J. 2014. “Terrorist Group Cooperation and Longevity.” International Studies Quarterly58 (2): 336‐347.
62.
PhillipsEverard M. 2015. “How do Kidnappers Kill Hostages? A Comparison of Terrorist and Criminal Groups.” Homicide Studies19 (2): 123‐148.
63.
PilnyAndrewProulxJeffrey. 2022. “Using Interorganizational Communication Networks to Predict Terrorist Attacks.” Communication Research49 (1): 3‐32.
64.
PiresStephen FGueretteRob TStubbertChristopher H. 2014. “The Crime Triangle of Kidnapping for Ransom Incidents in Colombia, South America: A ‘Litmus’ Test for Situational Crime Prevention.” The British Journal of Criminology54 (5): 784‐808.
65.
PiresStephen FGueretteRob TAuzeenShariati. 2017. “Specifying Kidnapping for Ransom Epidemics at the Global Level: A Matched-case Control Design.” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism40 (2): 139‐156.
66.
RasmussenMaria. 2017. “Terrorist Learning: A Look at the Adoption of Political Kidnappings in Six Countries, 1968–1990.” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism40 (7): 539‐556.
67.
Rodríguez-FrancoDiana. 2016. “Internal Wars, Taxation, and State Building.” American Sociological Review81 (1): 190‐213.
68.
SandlerToddScottJohn L. 1987. “Terrorist Success in Hostage-taking Incidents: An Empirical Study.” Journal of Conflict Resolution31 (1): 35‐53.
69.
SantifortCharlindaSandlerTodd. 2013. “Terrorist Success in Hostage-taking Missions: 1978–2010.” Public Choice156 (1): 125‐137.
70.
ShortlandAnjaKeatingeTom. 2017. “Closing the Gap: Assessing Responses to Terrorist-Related Kidnap-for-Ransom.” RUSI Occasional Paper.
71.
ShortlandAnjaVareseFederico. 2016. “State-building, Informal Governance and Organised Crime: The Case of Somali Piracy.” Political Studies64 (4): 811‐831.
StanilandPaul. 2012. “States, Insurgents, and Wartime Political Orders.” Perspectives on Politics10 (2): 243‐264.
74.
StewartMegan. 2018. “Civil War as State-making: Strategic Governance in Civil War.” International Organization72 (1): 205‐226.
75.
TadeOludayoOjedokunUsman AAderintoAdeyinka A. 2020. “‘I Went Through Hell’: Strategies for Kidnapping and Victims’ Experiences in Nigeria.” Journal of Aggression, Maltreatment and Trauma29 (10): 1244‐1256.
76.
TaylorMax.2010. “Is Terrorism a Group Phenomenon?” Aggression and Violent Behavior15 (2): 121‐129.
77.
TillyCharles. 1985. “War Making and State Making as Organized Crime.” In Violence: A Reader, edited by BestemanC., 169‐187. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
78.
TillyCharles. 1992. Coercion, Capital, and European States, AD 990-1992. Cambridge, MA: Blackwell.
79.
TaylorMaxHorganJohn. 2006. “A Conceptual Framework for Addressing Psychological Process in the Development of the Terrorist.” Terrorism and Political Violence18 (4): 585‐601.
80.
TurnerMark.1998. “Kidnapping and Politics.” International Journal of the Sociology of Law26 (2): 145‐160.
81.
TzanelliRodanthi. 2006. “Capitalizing on Value: Towards a Sociological Understanding of Kidnapping.” Sociology40 (5): 929‐947.
82.
WaltherOlivierChristianLeuprechtDavidSkillicorn. 2020. “Political Fragmentation and Alliances among Armed Non-state Actors in North and Western Africa (1997–2014).” Terrorism and Political Violence32 (1): 167‐186.
83.
WahmanMichaelJanTeorellAxelHadenius. 2013. “Authoritarian Regime Types Revisited: Updated Data in Comparative Perspective.” Contemporary Politics19 (1): 19‐34.
84.
WangDanSouleSarah. 2012. “Social Movement Organizational Collaboration: Networks of Learning and the Diffusion of Protest Tactics, 1960–1995.” American Journal of Sociology117 (6): 1674‐1722.
85.
WeberMax. 1946. “Politics as a Vocation.” In From Max Weber: Essays in Sociology, edited by GerthH. H.Wright MillsC., 77‐128. New York: Oxford University Press.
WilsonMargaret A.2000. “Toward a Model of Terrorist Behavior in Hostage-taking Incidents.” Journal of Conflict Resolution44 (4): 403‐424.
88.
YunMinwooRothMitchel. 2008. “Terrorist Hostage-taking and Kidnapping: Using Script Theory to Predict the Fate of a Hostage.” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism31 (8): 736‐748.
89.
ZennJacobPearsonElizabeth. 2014. “Women, Gender and the Evolving Tactics of Boko Haram.” Contemporary Voices: St Andrews Journal of International Relations5 (1): 46‐57. doi:10.15664/jtr.828
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
