There is ample evidence that the political exclusion of minorities from state power increases the risk of conflict. Nevertheless, do these same results apply to local representation? I explore this question using the success in mayoral elections of the Chilean Mapuche, a deprived indigenous minority in a longstanding conflict against the Chilean state. Combining a novel database on conflict and a surname strategy to single out Mapuche mayors, panel evidence suggests a negative association between minority mayors and local self-determination conflict. To provide identification, I exploit an electoral reform that exogenously changes the candidates’ probability of being elected. Land invasions, a primary type of conflict strategy for ethnic minorities, significantly decreased after the election of Mapuche mayors. I discuss the role of local horizontal inequalities and coercion as possible mechanisms.
AndersonT. W.RubinH.. 1949. “Estimation of the Parameters of a Single Equation in a Complete System of Stochastic Equations.” The Annals of Mathematical Statistics20 (1): 46-63.
2.
AndrewsI.StockJ. H.SunL.. 2019. “Weak Instruments in Instrumental Variables Regression: Theory and Practice.” Annual Review of Economics11: 727-753.
3.
BanducciS. A.DonovanT.KarpJ. A.. 2004. “Minority Representation, Empowerment, and Participation.” The Journal of Politics66 (2): 534-556.
4.
BengoaJ.2000. Historia del pueblo mapuche:(siglo XIX y XX), Vol. 7. Santiago: Lom Ediciones.
5.
BhalotraS.Clots-FiguerasI.IyerL.. 2023. “Ethnic Conflict: the Role of Ethnic Representation.” WIDER Working Paper.
6.
BoboL.GilliamF. D.Jr. 1990. “Race, Sociopolitical Participation, and Black Empowerment.” The American Political Science Review84: 377-393.
7.
BormannN.-C.CedermanL.-E.GatesS.GrahamB. A.HugS.StrømK. W.WucherpfennigJ.. 2019. “Power Sharing: Institutions, Behavior, and Peace.” American Journal of Political Science63 (1): 84-100.
8.
BormannN.-C.PenglY. I.CedermanL.-E.WeidmannN. B.. 2021. “Globalization, Institutions, and Ethnic Inequality.” International Organization75 (3): 665-697.
9.
BrancatiD.2006. “Decentralization: Fueling the Fire or Dampening the Flames of Ethnic Conflict and Secessionism?” International Organization60: 651-685.
10.
CallawayB.Sant’AnnaP. H.. 2021. “Difference-in-differences with Multiple Time Periods.” Journal of Econometrics225 (2): 200-230.
11.
CaniguanN.2019. “Movimiento territorial indígena y gobiernos locales. Etnografía de caso en una comuna de la araucanía, chile.” Antropologías del Sur6 (11): 63-78.
12.
CarnesN.LupuN.. 2015. “Rethinking the Comparative Perspective on Class and Representation: Evidence from Latin America.” American Journal of Political Science59 (1): 1-18.
13.
CayulP.CorvalanA.. 2024. “Indigenous Representation and Participation: The Case of Chilean Mapuche.” Electoral Studies90: 102818.
14.
CayulP.CorvalanA.JaimovichD.PazzonaM.. 2022. “Introducing Maceda: New Micro-Data on an Indigenous Self-Determination Conflict.” Journal of Peace Research59 (6): 903-912.
15.
CayuqueoP.2006. Participación y voto mapuche en las municipales. Mimeo; Tercer Taller de Formación Política de Wallmapuwen, Corporación Unión Araucana, Padre Las Casas.
16.
CedermanL.-E.WimmerA.MinB.. 2010. “Why Do Ethnic Groups Rebel? New Data and Analysis.” World Politics62 (1): 87-119.
17.
CedermanL.-E.WeidmannN. B.GleditschK. S.. 2011. “Horizontal Inequalities and Ethnonationalist Civil War: A Global Comparison.” American Political Science Review105 (3): 478-495.
18.
CedermanL.-E.GleditschK. S.BuhaugH.. 2013. Inequality, Grievances, and Civil War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
19.
ChattopadhyayR.DufloE.. 2004. “Women as Policy Makers: Evidence from a Randomized Policy Experiment in India.” Econometrica72 (5): 1409-1443.
20.
ClarkG.2015. The Son Also Rises: Surnames and the History of Social Mobility. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
21.
CorreaM.SeguelE. M.. 2010. “Las razones de illkun/enojo: memoria despojo y criminalización en el territorio mapuche de Malleco.” Editorial LOM, Santiago.
22.
CorvalanA.CoxP.OsorioR.. 2018. “Indirect Political Budget Cycles: Evidence from Chilean Municipalities.” Journal of Development Economics133: 1-14.
23.
CunninghamK. G.2014. Inside the Politics of Self-Determination. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
24.
CunninghamK. G.2023. “Choosing Tactics: The Efficacy of Violence and Nonviolence in Self-Determination Disputes.” Journal of Peace Research60 (1): 124-140.
25.
CunninghamK. G.DahlM.FrugéA.. 2017. “Strategies of Resistance: Diversification and Diffusion.” American Journal of Political Science61 (3): 591-605.
26.
CunninghamK. G.DahlM.FrugéA.. 2020. “Introducing the Strategies of Resistance Data Project.” Journal of Peace Research57 (3): 482-491.
27.
DavenportC.2007. “State Repression and Political Order.” Annual Review of Political Science10: 1-23.
28.
De LucaG.SekerisP. G.. 2012. “Land Inequality and Conflict Intensity.” Public Choice150 (1): 119-135.
29.
De LucaG.HodlerR.RaschkyP. A.ValsecchiM.. 2018. “Ethnic Favoritism: An Axiom of Politics?” Journal of Development Economics132: 115-129.
30.
EjdemyrS.KramonE.RobinsonA. L.. 2018. “Segregation, Ethnic Favoritism, and the Strategic Targeting of Local Public Goods.” Comparative Political Studies51 (9): 1111-1143.
31.
EspinozaC.2015. “Alcaldes mapuche y etnización del escenario político comunal e infracomunal.” In Ortelli Paola, Kathia Núñez Patiño, Lauriano Rodríguez Ortíz, and Bizuet Isunza (coordinadores), Procesos políticos y económicos contemporáneos en regiones indígenas de América Latina. Miradas etnográficas desde México, Chile y Ecuador.México, D.F.: Universidad Autónoma de Chiapas, Editorial Historia Herencia Mexicana.
32.
Espinoza ArayaC.2017. “Procesos etnopolíticos en la transición democrática chilena: Gobiernos locales y la vía política mapuche.” Cuadernos de Antropología Social (45): 21‐36.
33.
FergussonL.QuerubinP.RuizN. A.VargasJ. F.. 2021. “The Real Winner’s Curse.” American Journal of Political Science65 (1): 52‐68.
34.
Foerster GonzálezR.Vergara EstévezJ.. 2001. “Algunas transformaciones de la política mapuche en la década de los noventa.” Anales de la Universidad de Chile Sexta Serie, No13, agosto de.
35.
GermannM.SambanisN.. 2021. “Political Exclusion, Lost Autonomy, and Escalating Conflict over Self-Determination.” International Organization75 (1): 178-203.
36.
Goodman-BaconA.2021. “Difference-in-Differences with Variation in Treatment Timing.” Journal of Econometrics225 (2): 254-277.
37.
HidalgoF. D.NaiduS.NichterS.RichardsonN.. 2010. “Economic Determinants of Land Invasions.” The Review of Economics and Statistics92 (3): 505-523.
38.
HillesundS.ØstbyG.. 2023. “Horizontal Inequalities, Political Violence, and Nonviolent Conflict Mobilization: A Review of the Literature.” Journal of Economic Surveys37 (5): 1589-1635.
39.
HobsbawmE. J.1974. “Peasant Land Occupations.” Past & Present62 (62): 120-152.
40.
JaimovichD.ToledoF.. 2024. The Grievances of a Failed Reform: Chilean Land Reform and Conflict with Indigenous Communities. Mimeo.
41.
JenseniusF.2015. “Development from Representation? A Study of Quotas for the Scheduled Castes in India.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics7 (3): 196-220.
42.
JenseniusF.2017. Social Justice through Inclusion: The Consequences of Electoral Quotas in India. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
43.
KramonE.PosnerD.. 2016. “Ethnic Favoritism in Education in Kenya.” Quarterly Journal of Political Science116 (11): 1-58.
44.
LindemannS.WimmerA.. 2018. “Repression and Refuge: Why Only Some Politically Excluded Ethnic Groups Rebel.” Journal of Peace Research55 (3): 305-319.
45.
LyallJ.2009. “Does Indiscriminate Violence Incite Insurgent Attacks? Evidence from Chechnya.” Journal of Conflict Resolution53 (3): 331-362.
46.
MadridR. L.2008. “The Rise of Ethnopopulism in Latin America.” World Politics60 (3): 475-508.
47.
MarimanJ.1992. “Cuestión mapuche, descentralización del estado y autonomía regional.” Caravelle (1988-)59: 189-205.
48.
NellisG.SiddiquiN.. 2018. “Secular Party Rule and Religious Violence in Pakistan.” The American Political Science Review112 (1): 49-67.
49.
ØstbyG.2008. “Polarization, Horizontal Inequalities and Violent Civil Conflict.” Journal of Peace Research45 (2): 143-162.
50.
ØstbyG.2013. “Inequality and Political Violence: A Review of the Literature.” International Area Studies Review16 (2): 206-231.
51.
PainemalN.2011. Apellidos mapuche vinculados a títulos de merced. Santiago: Corporación Nacional de Desarrollo Indígena (CONADI).
52.
PairicanF.2014. Malon: La rebelión del movimiento mapuche, 1990-2013. Santiago: Pehuen.
53.
PandeR.2003. “Can Mandated Political Representation Increase Policy Influence for Disadvantaged Minorities? Theory and Evidence from India.” American Economic Review93 (4): 1132-1151.
54.
PitkinH.1967. “The Concept of Representation”. University of California Press.
55.
Rojas PedemonteN.MirandaO.. 2015. “Dinámica sociopolítica del conflicto y la violencia en territorio mapuche. particularidades históricas de un nuevo ciclo en las relaciones contenciosas.” Revista de Sociología30: 33.
56.
RosenthalM.ZubidaH.NachmiasD.. 2018. “Voting Locally Abstaining Nationally: Descriptive Representation, Substantive Representation and Minority Voters’ Turnout.” Ethnic and Racial Studies41 (9): 1632-1650.
57.
SambanisN.GermannM.SchädelA.. 2018. “SDM: A New Data Set on Self-Determination Movements with an Application to the Reputational Theory of Conflict.” Journal of Conflict Resolution62 (3): 656-686.
58.
SchubigerL. I.2023. “One for all? State violence and insurgent cohesion.” International Organization77 (1): 33‐64.
59.
StewartF.2008. “Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict: An Introduction and Some Hypotheses.” In Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict: Understanding Group Violence in Multiethnic Societies’, 3‐24. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK.
60.
VillafuerteD.1999. La tierra en Chiapas, viejos problemas nuevos. México D.F.: Plaza y Valdés.
61.
VogtM.BormannN.-C.RüeggerS.CedermanL.-E.HunzikerP.GirardinL.. 2015. “Integrating Data on Ethnicity, Geography, and Conflict: The Ethnic Power Relations Data Set Family.” Journal of Conflict Resolution59 (7): 1327-1342.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
