How well does substance use predict adolescent recidivism? When the Cox proportional hazards model was applied to officially recorded first rearrest of 505 juvenile offenders, a best-fitting complex multivariate model indicated that: (a) parent reports that youths “often” use substances more than doubles first rearrest risk, (b) averaged youth and parent substance use reports predict recidivism better than a single source, (c) parent or youth denial of youth substance use predicts recidivism, (d) age at first arrest does not predict recidivism, (e) non-White/non-Asians have a 79% higher recidivism risk than peers, (f) parent-reported delinquency predicts recidivism with declining accuracy, and (g) substance use robustly predicts recidivism despite prior reported delinquency, gender, ethnicity, age, follow-up time, or data source. Findings are related to host-provocation theory.
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