European Social Survey data suggest that dissatisfaction with national public services has direct negative effects on EU trust in most EU15 countries, but also that there is significant country variation in their actual magnitude. Two-thirds of this variation can be explained jointly by two macro factors: the effect is stronger in larger welfare states where elites and citizens may perceive EU-induced obstacles for welfare state expansion. Likewise, it is stronger in political systems where the most Eurosceptic parties have tended to be the most welfare state-supporting ones. Under such conditions, it is more probable that citizens receive political cues conducive to a negative effect of dissatisfaction on EU trust.
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