Vote Method and Confidence in Elections

Abstract

Might voters’ experience with how they cast ballots affect their confidence in votes being accurately counted? We analyze how vote modality shapes voters’ confidence in the accuracy of the vote count, particularly when one method of voting is called into question to challenge the legitimacy of an election. Drawing on a large panel survey of validated voters conducted before and after the 2020 General Election, we find that voters in Florida who voted by mail in the last two general elections were more confident that votes would be accurately counted in the state than those who voted in person in the previous two general elections, despite claims by elites that mail ballots were fraudulent. We also find that voters who cast validated mail ballots became more confident that votes were accurately counted in the election. Panel data reveals that voters who previously cast mail ballots, as well as voters who voted by mail in 2020, were no less confident than their counterparts in votes being accurately counted in the election. Building on existing research examining voting and confidence in elections, our study offers new evidence that voters’ actual experience with a voting method might mitigate perceived threats to election integrity.