Drawing on the signaling theory perspective, this study examines the effect of perceived country of origin on brand performance during economic contractions. The authors specify an econometric model linking brand market share to recession periods and analyze the interaction with brand origin perception. They test the model on four years of longitudinal data on consumer packaged goods brands combined with a self-administrated consumer questionnaire to infer consumers’ perceptions about brands’ origins. The authors find that economic contractions differentially affect brands with different country-of-origin perceptions. The results indicate that the market share of brands that customers most identify as domestic suffers more damage during contractions than brands they perceive as foreign. The main contribution of this article is in generating a better understanding of brands’ resistance to economic contractions based on their perceived country of origin. Moreover, the authors provide strategic recommendations to brands based on their origin perception and the country's economic situation.
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