Abstract
VisitScotland has set out a vision for the Scottish tourism industry in which tourism will be the ‘first and everlasting industry’ of Scotland. This vision is driven by an ambition to increase tourism revenue by 50 per cent within the next ten years. In order to achieve that objective, a strategy map is used to provide direction that sets out the size and shape of the industry.
A constructivist interpretation paradigm and a cognitive mapping methodology are used to bring structure to the phenomenon of tourism futures by using a software package called Decision Explorer. This paper describes tourism being shaped by changes in demographics and in monetary policy. The consumer will be price-sensitive and/or sophisticated. Scotland will be recognised as a leisure destination rather than a tourism destination, with revenue growth much more likely to be derived from retail and leisure activities rather than the traditional sectors of accommodation and transport. But as tourism develops in Scotland, faster growth will be seen from European and short-haul markets compared to traditional long-haul markets. Shifts in demand as a result of demographic changes will result in visitors staying more with friends rather than with relatives, particularly in urban locations. A decreasing labour supply will result in more dependency on labour substitutes and the newer technologies.
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