The civilian population has been described as ‘the center of gravity in irregular warfare’. Understanding the behavioral response of the civilian population in irregular warfare operations presents a major challenge area to the joint modeling and simulation community where there is a clear need for the development of models, methods, and tools to address civilian behavior response. This paper provides a conceptual and theoretical overview of the Cultural Geography (CG) model, a government-owned, open-source agent-based model designed to address the behavioral response of civilian populations in conflict environments. With an embedded case study, we describe the development of cognitive modules to represent the civilian population and their implementation as Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), the social structure module implemented using homophily, the process of adjudicating the effects of tactical level outcomes on a population segment within the model, and a sample case study analysis using a designed experiment.
Kilkullen D.Counterinsurgency in Iraq: theory and practice. 2007 .
2.
Miller J., Page S.Complex adaptive systems: an introduction to computational models of social life. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2007.
3.
Conklin, J.Wicked problems & social complexity. In Dialogue mapping: building shared understanding of wicked problems. Wiley , 2005.
4.
Director, A.C.I.C.A.The U.S. Army Commander’s appreciation and campaign design. Army, Editor: Training and Doctrine Command, 2008.
5.
Ferber J., Gutknecht O., and Michel F.From agents to organizations: an organizational view of multi-agent systems . Agent-Oriented Softw Eng2004; IV: 214-230.
6.
Ferber J.Multi-agent system: an introduction to distributed artificial intelligence . Harlow: Addison Wesley Longman , 1999.
7.
Mansoor PRC , Ulrich MSMLinking doctrine to action: a new COIN center-of-gravity analysis. Military Review, 2007 (Sep-Oct).
8.
Perkins T., Pearman G., and Jackson L.Cultural Geography data development. TRADOC Analysis Center , 2009.
9.
Fisher W.Human communication as narration: toward a philosophy of reason, value, and action. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1987.
10.
Beppu A., Griffiths TLIterated learning and the cultural ratchet. In: Proceedings of the 31st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society . In Press.
11.
Ajzen I.The theory of planned behavior. Organ Behav Hum Decis Process1991; 50: 179-211.
12.
Jackson L.Narrative paradigm in Cultural Geography modeling. In: Human, Social-cultural, Behavioral Representation Committee Focus 2010. 2009.
13.
Griffiths TL , Kemp C., and Tenenbaum JBBayesian models of cognition. In: Sun R (ed.), The Cambridge handbook of computational cognitive modeling. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008.
14.
McPherson M. , Smith-Lovin L., and Cook JMBirds of a feather: homophily in social networks . Annu Rev Sociol2001: 27; 415-444.
15.
Shchulz L., Bonawitz E., and Griffiths TLCan being scared cause tummy aches? Naive theories, ambiguous evidence, and preschoolers’ causal inferences. Dev Psychol2007; 43: 1124-1139.
16.
Gelman A. et al. Bayesian data analysis. 2nd edn. Texts in Statistical Science. New York: Chapman & Hall, 2004.
17.
Pearl J.Causality: models, reasoning, and inference. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000.
18.
Cheng J., Greiner R.Learning Bayesian belief network classifiers: algorithms and system . Artif Intell2001: 141-151.
19.
Griffiths TL, Tenenbaum JBTeacakes, trains, taxicabs and toxins: a Bayesian account of predicting the future. In: Proceedings of the 22nd Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. 2000.
20.
Vul E. et al. One and done? Optimal decisions from very few samples. In: Proceedings of the 31st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. 2009.
21.
Devore JLProbability and statistics for engineering and the sciences. Vol. 2000.
22.
Popper C.Objective knowledge: an evolutionary approach. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1979.
Blau PMStructural context of opportunities. University of Chicago Press, 1994.
27.
Blau PM, Schwartz JECrosscutting social circles: testing a macrostructural theory of intergroup relations. Transaction Publishers, 1997 .
28.
Jackson MOAverage distance, diameter, and clustering in social networks with homophily . In: Internet and network economics. Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer , 2008.
29.
McPherson JM , Popielarz PA, and Drobnic S.Social networks and organizational dynamics . Am Socio Rev1992; 57.
30.
McPherson JM , Ranger-Moore JREvolution on a dancing landscape: organizations and networks in dynamic Blau space. Social Forces1991; 70: 19-42.
31.
Lazarsfeld PF , MRK. Friendship as a social process: a substantive and methodological analysis. In: Berger M (ed.), Freedom and control in modern society . New York: Van Nostrand, 1954, p.18-66.
32.
Marwell G., Oliver P., and Prahl R.Social networks and collective action: a theory of the critical mass. III . Am J Sociol1988; 94: 502-534.
