This is a report on developments in naturalistic decision making (NDM) with respect to current challenges and prospects discussed at the 2015 NDM International Conference. Emphasis is placed on orienting scientific resources to address the challenges expressed by the Human Systems Priority Steering Council. Participants and presenters at the NDM conference were asked to discuss ways in which the NDM paradigm can be extended and applied to address current and emerging national, international, and societal challenges.
BaberC.ChenX.HowesA. (2015, June). (Very) rapid decision making: Framing or filtering?Paper presented at the 12th International Naturalistic Decision Making Conference, McLean, VA.
2.
BaberC.DuncanA.AttfieldS.RooneyC.KodagodaN.WalkerR. (2015, June). How military intelligence personnel collaborate on a sense-making exercise. Paper presented at the 12th International Naturalistic Decision Making Conference, McLean, VA.
3.
CookeN. J.DursoF. (2007). Stories of modern technology failures and cognitive engineering successes. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
4.
CrandallB.KleinG.HoffmanR. R. (2007). Working minds: A practitioner’s guide to cognitive task analysis. Cambridge MA: MIT Press.
5.
Department of Defense. (2011). Human engineering requirements for military systems, equipment, and facilities (MIL-STD-46855A). Washington, DC: Author.
6.
DruryJ. L.KleinG. L.PfaffM. S.BonacetoC. (in press). A model of enterprise systems engineering contributions to acquisition success. International Journal of Complex Systems.
FlachJ.VoorhorstF. (2016). What matters?Dayton, OH: Wright State University Libraries.
9.
FlinR.SalasE.StrubM.MartinL. (Eds.). (1997). Decision making under stress: Emerging themes and applications. Aldershot, UK: Ashgate.
10.
HendersonS.HoffmanR. R.BunchL.BradshawJ. (2015, June). Applying the principles of magic and the concepts of macrocognition to counter-deception in cyber operations. Paper presented at the12th International Meeting on Naturalistic Decision Making, McLean, VA.
11.
HoffmanR. R. (1998). How can expertise be defined? Implications of research from cognitive psychology. In WilliamsR.FaulknerW.FleckJ. (Eds.), Exploring expertise (pp. 81–100). New York, NY: Macmillan.
12.
HoffmanR. R.HancockP. A. (in press). Measuring resilience. Human Factors.
13.
HoffmanR. R.HanesL. F. (2003). The boiled frog problem. IEEE Intelligent Systems, 18(4), 68–71.
14.
HoffmanR. R.WardP. (2015). Mentoring: A leverage point for intelligent systems?IEEE Intelligent Systems, 30(5), 78–84.
15.
HoffmanR. R.WardP.DiBelloL.FeltovichP. J.FioreS. M.AndrewsD. (2014). Accelerated expertise: Training for high proficiency in a complex world. Boca Raton, FL: Taylor and Francis/CRC Press.
JohnsonM.BradshawJ. M.HoffmanR. R.FeltovichP. J.WoodsD. D. (2014). Seven cardinal virtues of human-machine teamwork. IEEE Intelligent Systems, 29(6), 74–79.
18.
KleinG. (2007). Flexecution as a paradigm for replanning, Part 1. IEEE Intelligent Systems, 22(5), 79–83.
19.
KleinG.RasmussenL.Mei-HuaL.HoffmanR. R.CaseJ. (2014). Influencing preferences for different types of causal explanation for complex events. Human Factors, 56, 1380–1400.
KleinG.WoodsD. D.BradshawJ. D.HoffmanR. R.FeltovichP. J. (2004). Ten challenges for making automation a “team player” in joint human–agent activity. IEEE Intelligent Systems, 19(6), 91–95.
22.
KleinH. A. (2009). Computational modeling in complex multinational domains. IEEE Intelligent Systems, 24(1), 84–88.
23.
LaDueD. (2015, June). Forecasting advancements in weather-related NDM research. Paper presented at the 12th International Naturalistic Decision Making Conference, McLean, VA.
24.
MontgomeryH.LipshitzR.BrehmerB. (2005). How professionals make decisions. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
25.
MosierK. L.FischerU. M. (2010). Informed by knowledge: Expert performance in complex situations. London, UK: Taylor and Francis.
26.
MosierK. L.MilitelloL. G. (Eds.). (2016). Special issue: Extending naturalistic decision making: reaching across domains, disciplines, and applications. Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making, 10, 227–324.
27.
RasmussenL. J.SieckW. R.HoffmanR. R. (2013). Cultural knowledge for intelligence analysts: Expertise in cultural sensemaking. American Intelligence Journal, 31, 28–37.
28.
SchraagenJ.-M.ChipmanS. F.ShalinV. L. (Eds.). (2000). Cognitive task analysis. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
29.
SchraagenJ.-M.KleinG.HoffmanR. R. (2008). The macrocognition framework of naturalistic decision making. In Naturalistic Decision Making and Macrocognition (pp. 3–25). Aldershot, England: Ashgate Publishing Limited.
30.
SchraagenJ.-M.MilitelloL. G.OrmerodT.LipshitzR. (Eds.). (2007). Naturalistic decision making and macrocognition. Aldershot, UK: Ashgate.
31.
StaszewskiJ. J.DavisonA. (2000). Mine detection training based on expert skill. Proceedings of SPIE, 4038, 90–101.
32.
TangneyJ. (2012). Human Systems Priority Steering Council report. Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, Department of Defense, Washington, DC.
33.
WarwickW.HuttonR. (2007). Computational and theoretical perspectives on recognition primed decision making. In HoffmanR. R. (Ed.), Expertise out of context: Proceedings of the Sixth International Conference on Naturalistic Decision Making (pp. 429–451). Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
34.
WintersJ.FeyC.SimpkissB.MerrimanS.StohrE.PharmerJ. A. (2010). Establishing requirements for human factors engineering and HSI: Why do we feel like we’re banging our heads against a wall? In Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 54th Annual Meeting (pp. 2174–2178). Santa Monica, CA: Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.
35.
WoodsD. D. (2015). Four concepts for resilience and the implications for the future of resilience engineering. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 141, 5–9.
ZacharyW.HoffmanR. R.NevilleK.FowlkesJ. (2007). Human total cost of ownership: The penny foolish principle at work. IEEE Intelligent Systems, 22(2), 88–92.
