Sage Journals: Discover world-class research

Abstract

We examine student attendance patterns in North Carolina across three post-pandemic years (2021–22 to 2023–24) compared to three pre-pandemic years (2016–17 to 2018–19). We find that the percentage of students who were chronically absent at least once over the 3-year period increased from 17% pre-pandemic to 38% post-pandemic, while the percentage who were chronically absent in all 3 years quadrupled from 2.4% to 9.6%. Persistent chronic absence rates are higher for Black and Hispanic than for White students and for students in high-poverty schools. Results show that while chronic absenteeism has been widespread post-pandemic, some students are experiencing especially deep and persistent levels of absenteeism. These students may face deeper underlying challenges to attendance and require more intensive intervention to recover.

Keywords

COVID-19 attendance chronic absenteeism

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been sustained shifts in K–12 student attendance rates. The percentage of students who were chronically absent—defined as missing 10% or more of school days—nearly doubled between the 2018–19 and 2021–22 school years, from 15% to 28% (Dee, 2024; Malkus, 2024a). Chronic absence rates have since declined only marginally (Fuller et al., 2024a; Malkus, 2024a, 2024b). Increases in chronic absenteeism have been observed across all states, types of schools, and student subgroups (Dee, 2024; Malkus, 2024a). Research has also shown increases in days absent at all points of the attendance distribution, including below the chronic absence threshold. For example, the median student in North Carolina missed 7 days of school in 2018–19 but 10 days in 2022–23 (Fuller et al., 2024a).

The rise in absenteeism is important for several reasons. Absenteeism is associated with declines in achievement and educational attainment (Aucejo & Romano, 2016; Gershenson et al., 2017; Gottfried, 2011; Liu et al., 2021), suggesting that increased absenteeism may be slowing post-pandemic academic recovery (National Center for Education Statistics, 2023). Absenteeism can also be disruptive to school and classroom environments, producing negative spillover impacts on peers’ achievement (Gottfried, 2019; Gottfried & Ansari, 2022) and disconnecting students from peers, teachers, and other supportive resources at their school (Gottfried et al., 2024). High rates of absenteeism over multiple years may carry more severe consequences (Ansari & Gottfried, 2021; Wei, 2024).

While there is clear evidence that absence rates have been elevated each year since the onset of the pandemic, to our knowledge, no research has longitudinally examined individual students’ attendance patterns over this period. Thus, it is unclear whether the same or different students are chronically absent each year. The former might suggest that a limited group of students faces intense and enduring attendance challenges, whereas the latter might suggest that many students have faced acute but transient challenges. In turn, these possibilities could indicate different underlying causes of the rise in absenteeism and call for different responses.

We use data from North Carolina to count students’ total days absent accumulated over the 3-year period from 2021–22 to 2023–24 and the number of years in which a student was chronically absent over this period. We focus on students in grades K–6 in 2021–22 and compare results to a pre-pandemic cohort of students in grades K–6 in 2016–17 (followed through 2018–19). Results show that while chronic absenteeism has been experienced broadly post-pandemic, some students have become deeply and persistently absent. This suggests a need for multitiered responses that can address attendance challenges of different levels of severity and duration.

Data and Method

We use administrative data from the North Carolina Department of Public Instruction, including student demographics and annual attendance records, from 2016–17 through 2023–24. Our sample includes all students enrolled in grades K–6 in 2016–17 or 2021–22 who were also observed in each of the next 2 years. We exclude 8% of students observed in 2016-17 or 2021–22 because they were not observed in at least one of the next 2 years and 3% of student-year observations where the student was enrolled for fewer than 90 days during any year of their 3-year cohort period. We also exclude a small number of students (<1%) who were absent for at least 75% of days in any year to avoid skewing our cumulative absence counts with students who are recorded as missing nearly an entire school year. These restrictions remove similar proportions of students from the pre- and post-pandemic cohorts.

We do not include high school students in this analysis because dropout could affect absence rates. We omit 2019-20 because this year was shortened due to school closures in March and the quality of attendance data post-March, when schools switched to virtual instruction, is uncertain. Indeed, reported absence rates this year were low and not comparable to other pre- or post-pandemic years (Fuller et al., 2024a). We omit 2020–21 because this year included a mix of remote, hybrid, and in-person instruction, whereas (non-virtual) schools in our setting have been fully in-person since 2021–22. Absence rates in 2020-21 were more varied than usual, potentially reflecting different attendance behavior or recording practices across instructional modalities (Fuller et al., 2024b), though a previous version of this study that examined attendance patterns from 2020–21 to 2022–23 produced similar conclusions as the current version (Swiderski et al., 2024).

Supplemental Appendix Table A1 (available in the online version of this article) shows descriptive statistics of our sample. Changes in population characteristics over time are modest. For example, 44% of the post-pandemic sample is White, compared to 47% of the pre-pandemic sample. This table additionally shows mean days absent and chronic absence rates in each year. In the pre-pandemic cohort, mean days absent ranged from 6.8 to 8.4 per year, while between 6.8% and 10.7% of students were chronically absent each year. Post-pandemic, mean days absent ranged from 12.1 to 13.3, while between 20.8% and 25.9% of students were chronically absent.

Our outcomes include students’ cumulative total number of days absent and the number of years in which they were chronically absent over their 3-year cohort period. Because students can be observed for different numbers of days enrolled, we normalized absence counts to a 180-day school year (i.e., we multiplied a student’s absence rate by 180 each year). We define a student as chronically absent if they missed at least 10% of days enrolled in a year.

We note that North Carolina requires 185 days of instruction (or an equivalent number of instructional hours), which is slightly more than the 180 required by most states (Silva-Padron & McCann, 2023). The attendance data we receive may exclude the final days of the school year, which are reserved for end-of-year testing, as we observe students for a median of 169 days in 2016–17 and 173 to 175 days from 2017–18 and later. If students miss more school at the end of a year (Singer & Lenhoff, 2020), our results may understate true absence totals and chronic absence rates by a small amount. However, end-of-year absences may largely occur after students have completed required testing and thus be less meaningful to their academic performance (Gottfried & Kirksey, 2017) and less indicative of their engagement with school. The slightly lower count of days observed in 2016–17 may also lead the absence rates we observed in that year to be slightly understated relative to other years. Beyond this, we are not aware of any changes to attendance recording practices or policies that would affect our comparisons over time.

Methodologically, we conduct a descriptive analysis with the aim of deepening understanding of the scale and magnitude of post-pandemic attendance problems by measuring them in new, meaningful ways—longitudinally rather than cross-sectionally and at the level of days absent rather than chronic absence rates only (Loeb et al., 2017). As this is not a causal analysis, the changes we observe might not be solely attributable to the pandemic (which itself is a complex phenomenon that has had far-reaching impacts on the education system) but could also be due to shifts in the composition of students or preexisting trends in attendance. However, this descriptive analysis is relevant to education practice and policy given that educators must respond to actual levels of absenteeism in their classrooms, regardless of causes. Further, North Carolina has experienced similar trends in absenteeism post-pandemic as elsewhere in the United States (Malkus, 2024a), suggesting that this is a useful setting for studying attendance patterns.

Results

(a) Accumulated days absent

Figure 1 shows a quantile plot of the distribution of total days absent over each 3-year period. The horizontal axis lines up students from least to most absences within their cohort, while the vertical axis indicates how many days that student missed over the 3-year period (see Supplemental Appendix Figure A1 for a histogram and Supplemental Appendix Table A2 for means and quantiles of this variable, available in the online version of this article). Figure 1 shows that absences are higher at every point of the distribution post-pandemic, but increases are larger at higher points. The median number of days absent accumulated across the 3-year post-pandemic period was 32 (or 10.7 per year) compared to 20 pre-pandemic (6.7 per year). However, the 90th percentile post-pandemic is 76 absences (25.3 per year), while the 95th percentile is 98 absences (32.7 per year). By contrast, the 95th percentile pre-pandemic was 61 absences (20.3 per year), and almost no student accrued 100 or more total absences in the pre-pandemic cohort.

Figure 1.

Distribution of total absences accumulated over a 3-year period, pre- versus post-pandemic.

(b) Experiences of chronic absenteeism

Figure 2 displays the percentage of students in each cohort who were chronically absent in 0, 1, 2, or all 3 years (see also Supplemental Appendix Table A3 in the online version of the journal). Compared to pre-pandemic, the percentage of students who were chronically absent at least once in the post-pandemic period more than doubled, from 17% to 38%. The percentage of students who were chronically absent in at least 2 out of 3 years nearly tripled, from 7% to 20%, and the percentage who were chronically absent all 3 years quadrupled, from 2.4% to 9.6%.

Figure 2.

Number of years chronically absent over three school years, pre- versus post-pandemic.

Supplemental Appendix Table A4 (available in the online version of this article) additionally shows which years students were chronically absent in the post-pandemic cohort. For example, of the 18% of students who were chronically absent in just 1 year, about half were chronically absent in 2021–22 only, 23% were chronically absent in 2022–23 only, and 27% were chronically absent in 2023–24 only. These results highlight that even as chronic absence rates may be marginally decreasing over time, there are still many students who became newly chronically absent in 2023–24.

Finally, we disaggregated chronic absence results across subgroups defined by student race/ethnicity, gender, economic distress (ED), disability status, base year grade level, school urbanicity, and school percent ED (in 2016–17, calculated prior to sampling restrictions). Figure 3 highlights differences by race/ethnicity and school ED quartile (see Supplemental Appendix Tables A2 and A3 in the online version of the journal for all results).

Figure 3.

Number of years chronically absent over three school years, pre- versus post-pandemic, by race/ethnicity, and school ED quartile.

Panel A shows that increases in chronic absenteeism have been larger in magnitude at high-ED than low-ED schools, but relative changes from baselines have been similar. In high-ED schools, the percentage of students who were chronically absent at least once rose from 22% pre-pandemic to 49% post-pandemic. In low-ED schools, this rate rose from 11% to 26%. In high-ED schools, the percentage of students who were chronically absent all 3 years quadrupled from 3.6% to 14.5%. In low-ED schools, this rate quadrupled from 1.2% to 4.7%.

Panel B shows that the percentage of White students who were chronically absent at least once more than doubled, from 15% pre-pandemic to 32% post-pandemic. The rate of change for Black students was similar, rising from 21% pre-pandemic to 44% post-pandemic, while the rate for Hispanic students nearly tripled, from 15% to 41%. The percentage of students who were chronically absent for 3 consecutive years tripled among White students, from 2.3% to 7.1%, but more than quadrupled among Black students, from 3.0% to 13.6%, and more than quintupled among Hispanic students, from 1.8% to 10.4%.

Conclusion

Chronic absenteeism has emerged as one of the most prevalent problems facing schools following the pandemic. However, while research has documented heightened absence rates on average, prior analyses have not examined absenteeism longitudinally at the student level.

Our longitudinal analysis reveals three key points. First, a broad set of students have experienced chronic absenteeism post-pandemic, with 38% being chronically absent at least once between 2021–22 and 2023–24. Second, deep and persistent chronic absenteeism has also become more prevalent. Nearly 10% of students were chronically absent every year between 2021–22 and 2023–24, while 5% accrued nearly 100 or more total absences. Third, post-pandemic chronic absenteeism is not spread evenly across the population. Students in high-ED schools, as well as Black and Hispanic students, are more likely to have experienced chronic absenteeism at least once as well as persistently.

Thus, while many students are averaging a few more absences per year than pre-pandemic peers, some students are experiencing deep and persistent levels of absenteeism. The presence of these different groups may help explain why prior research has not identified clear causes of the increase in absenteeism (Saavedra et al., 2024). While absenteeism has risen generally, different students may be facing attendance challenges of very different severity and duration.

For example, some students may have been chronically absent in a single year due to a transient problem, such as anxiety transitioning back to in-person learning or being sick with COVID-19. Otherwise, many students are missing only a few more days of school per year, which might reflect changed norms and attitudes toward school attendance (The Learning Network, 2024). Children may have also been sick more often as they returned to greater daily in-person contact (CDC, 2024a).

Conversely, students experiencing deep and persistent chronic absenteeism may be facing more enduring challenges, such as prolonged physical or mental health problems, a loss of interest in or perceived value of school, diminished connections to school peers and staff, or challenges stemming from disruptions to family structures or economic security (CDC, 2024b; Daly, 2023; Lenhoff et al., 2021). High rates of persistent absenteeism in high-ED schools point to a possible exacerbation of structural challenges related to family poverty or school resources in these communities (Childs & Lofton, 2021). In addition, the especially large increase in persistent absenteeism among Hispanic students, many of whom are English learners and/or from immigrant families, suggests there may have been particular challenges related to communication between schools and these students and families since the pandemic’s onset. Moving forward, it is unclear whether absence rates will return toward pre-pandemic values or stall out at a “new normal.” Regardless, it is likely that students who have become deeply and persistently absent will need targeted and intensive support to recover.

Our results suggest that district and school leaders may benefit from implementing multi-tiered interventions that include light-touch, moderate, and intensive strategies to respond to many causes of absenteeism (Gottfried et al., 2023). For example, broad efforts to make school a more engaging and positive experience may encourage students to attend school more regularly. Efforts to support students’ academic recovery and reconnection with peers and school staff following an extended period of absenteeism may help prevent their absenteeism from becoming deep and persistent. Students who have become deeply and persistently absent may need specialized, one-to-one support, potentially including outreach to their families and community organizations, to address deep-rooted problems preventing their school attendance.

However, it is unclear whether education leaders have sufficient information or resources to address these kinds of deep and widespread chronic absence rates (Singer, 2024). Further, pre-pandemic attendance interventions may not adequately address the root causes of post-pandemic absenteeism or be scalable to meet the broad rise in absenteeism. These considerations suggest a continued role for state leaders to expand access to timely and actionable information on student attendance, considering not only yearly attendance rates but also within-year and across-year patterns. State leaders may also play a critical role in supporting efforts to better understand barriers to attendance that have arisen post-pandemic and to develop, study, improve, disseminate, and scale up interventions to re-engage students with school.

Finally, this study highlights the value of considering absenteeism as more than a binary variable and as a longitudinal rather than a cross-sectional outcome. Relying only on the chronic absence threshold means missing vital changes occurring below and, especially, above this line. Many students are now missing at least 20% of school days and may have more intense needs than students whose absence rates are only half that, even though each would be considered chronically absent. Further, students who are persistently chronically absent are likely to fall further behind and grow increasingly disconnected from their peers and teachers. To provide these students adequate support, they first need to be identified through systems that consider absenteeism longitudinally. As such, state leaders should support efforts to expand the ways in which information on absenteeism is reported to ensure school leaders have a complete and actionable understanding of student attendance.

Supplemental Material

sj-pdf-1-epa-10.3102_01623737251315715 – Supplemental material for Student-Level Attendance Patterns Across Three Post-Pandemic Years

Supplemental material, sj-pdf-1-epa-10.3102_01623737251315715 for Student-Level Attendance Patterns Across Three Post-Pandemic Years by Tom Swiderski, Sarah Crittenden Fuller and Kevin C. Bastian in Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis

Footnotes

Acknowledgements

We thank the staff at the North Carolina Department of Public Instruction (NCDPI) and the Brookings Institution Brown Center on Education Policy for feedback on a prior version of this work and the three anonymous reviewers for their helpful feedback on this manuscript. The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the Institute of Education Sciences, the U.S. Department of Education, or the Spencer Foundation.

Declaration of Conflicting Interests

The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Funding

The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: The research reported here was supported by the Institute of Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education, through grant number R305S220003 to NCDPI and by the Spencer Foundation through grant number 202200138 to the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

ORCID iDs

Tom Swiderski

Sarah Crittenden Fuller

Kevin C. Bastian

Authors

TOM SWIDERSKI, PhD, is a research associate at the Education Policy Initiative at Carolina at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. His research primarily examines the impact of education systems, policies, and programs on student transitions to college and career.

SARAH CRITTENDEN FULLER, PhD, is a research associate professor at the Education Policy Initiative at Carolina at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Her research focuses on health impacts on education, natural disasters, high school interventions, postsecondary transitions, achievement gaps in education, and COVID-19 pandemic recovery.

KEVIN C. BASTIAN, PhD, is a research associate professor at the Education Policy Initiative at Carolina at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. His research focuses on educator preparation, labor markets, and on-the-job learning; estimating teacher and principal effectiveness; the distribution of educational resources; and using data to inform the improvement of educator preparation programs.

References

Ansari

Gottfried

M. A.

(2021). The grade-level and cumulative outcomes of absenteeism. Child Development, 92(4), e548–e564. https://doi.org/10.1111/cdev.13555

Aucejo

E. M.

Romano

T. F.

(2016). Assessing the effect of school days and absences on test score performance. Economics of Education Review, 55, 70–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2016.08.007

Center for Disease Control. (2024a). QuickStats: Percentage of children and adolescents aged 5-17 years who had chronic school absenteeism due to illness, injury, or disability during the past 12 months, by age group and year—National Health Interview Survey, United States, 2019 and 2022. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 73(8), 189. https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7308a6

Center for Disease Control. (2024b). Youth risk behavior survey data summary & trends report: 2011–2021. https://www.cdc.gov/healthyyouth/mental-health/index.htm

Childs

Lofton

(2021). Masking attendance: How education policy distracts from the wicked problem(s) of chronic absenteeism. Educational Policy, 35(2), 213–234. https://doi.org/10.1177/0895904820986771

Daly

(2023). Chronic absenteeism has become a crisis, part 1: Possible causes. Fordham Institute. https://fordhaminstitute.org/national/commentary/chronic-absenteeism-has-become-crisis-part-1-possible-causes

Dee

T. S.

(2024). Higher chronic absenteeism threatens academic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 121(3), e2312249121. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2312249121

Fuller

S. C.

Bastian

K. C.

Swiderski

Lauen

D. L.

(2024a). Post-pandemic changes in absences and chronic absence rates in North Carolina: Updated through 2022–23. Education Policy Initiative at Carolina. https://epic.unc.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/1268/2024/03/Post-pandemic-Changes-in-Absences-and-Chronic-Absence-Rates-in-NC-2022-2023.pdf

Fuller

S. C.

Swiderski

Mikkelsen

C. N.

Bastian

K. C.

(2024b). In school, engaged, on-track? The effect of the pandemic on student attendance, course grades, and grade retention in North Carolina. Educational Researcher. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.3102/0013189X241299397

10.

Gershenson

Jacknowitz

Brannegan

(2017). Are student absences worth the worry in U.S. primary schools? Education Finance & Policy, 12(2), 137–165. https://doi.org/10.1162/EDFP_a_00207

11.

Gottfried

M. A.

(2011). The detrimental effects of missing school: Evidence from urban siblings. American Journal of Education, 117(2), 147–182. https://doi.org/10.1086/657886

12.

Gottfried

M. A.

(2019). Chronic absenteeism in the classroom context: Effects on achievement. Urban Education, 54(1), 3–34. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042085915618709

13.

Gottfried

M. A.

Ansari

(2022). Classrooms with high rates of absenteeism and individual success: Exploring students’ achievement, executive function, and socio-behavioral outcomes. Early Childhood Research Quarterly, 59(2), 215–227. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecresq.2021.11.008

14.

Gottfried

M. A.

Kim

Fletcher

T. L.

(2024). Do teachers perceive absent students differently? AERA Open, 10(1), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1177/23328584241259398

15.

Gottfried

M. A.

Kirksey

J. J.

(2017). “When” students miss school: The role of timing of absenteeism on students’ test performance. Educational Researcher, 46(3), 119–130. https://doi.org/10.3102/0013189X17703945

16.

Gottfried

M. A.

Page

Edwards

(2023). Reducing student absenteeism (EdResearch for Action Brief No. 22). https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED647452.pdf

17.

Lenhoff

S. W.

Singer

Stokes

Mahowald

J. B.

(2021). Why do Detroit students miss school? Implications for returning to school after COVID-19. Detroit Education Research Partnership. https://detroitpeer.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/10.-Why-Do-Detroit-Students-Miss-School-Implications-for-Returning-to-School-After-COVID-19-ACCESSIBLE.pdf

18.

Liu

Lee

Gershenson

(2021). The short- and long-run impacts of secondary school absences. Journal of Public Economics, 199, 104441. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104441

19.

Loeb

Dynarski

McFarland

Morris

Reardon

Reber

(2017). Descriptive analysis in education: A guide for researchers (NCEE 2017-4023). U.S. Department of Education. https://ies.ed.gov/ncee/pubs/20174023/

20.

Malkus

(2024a). Long COVID for public schools: Chronic absenteeism before and after the pandemic. American Enterprise Institute. https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Long-COVID-for-Public-Schools.pdf?x85095

21.

Malkus

(2024b). The latest chronic absenteeism numbers. AEIdeas. https://www.aei.org/education/the-latest-chronic-absenteeism-numbers/

22.

National Center for Education Statistics. (2023). Rising absenteeism since onset of pandemic associated with NAEP 2022 score declines. NAEP Plus. https://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/blog/attendance_and_naep_2022_score_declines.aspx

23.

Saavedra

Polikoff

Silver

(2024). Parents are not fully aware of, or concerned about, their children’s school attendance. Brookings Brown Center Chalkboard. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/parents-are-not-fully-aware-of-or-concerned-about-their-childrens-school-attendance/

24.

Silva-Padron

McCann

(2023). 50-state comparison: Instructional time policies. Education Commission of the States. https://www.ecs.org/50-state-comparison-instructional-time-policies-2023/

25.

Singer

(2024). Attendance practices in high-absenteeism districts. Educational Policy. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1177/08959048241288504

26.

Singer

Lenhoff

S. W.

(2020). Attendance throughout the seasons in the Detroit Public Schools Community District. Detroit Education Research Partnership. https://detroitpeer.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/6.-Attendance-Throughout-the-Seasons-ACCESSIBLE.pdf

27.

Swiderski

Fuller

S. C.

Bastian

K. C.

(2024). Student-level attendance patterns show depth, breadth, and persistence of post-pandemic absenteeism. Brookings Brown Center Chalkboard. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/student-level-attendance-patterns-show-depth-breadth-and-persistence-of-post-pandemic-absenteeism/

28.

The Learning Network. (April 11, 2024). What students are saying about why school absences have ‘exploded.’ The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/11/learning/what-students-are-saying-about-why-school-absences-have-exploded.html

29.

Wei

(2024). Exploring patterns of absenteeism from prekindergarten through early elementary school and their associations with children’s academic outcomes. AERA Open, 10(1), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1177/23328584241228212

Supplementary Material

Please find the following supplemental material available below.

For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.

For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.

0.65 MB

0.00 MB