Disentangling bias: national capabilities,regime type,and international conflict mediation

Abstract

Existing literature on bias and third-party conflict management mainly focuses on the dichotomy of whether the mediator’s bias as a whole can contribute to mediation onset and outcomes. I argue that we need more specific and disaggregated research on the mediator’s bias because the side on which a prospective mediator’s bias lies may significantly affect the likelihood of mediation onset. Why are some biased mediations initiated by third parties while others are not? By disentangling the mediator’s bias and by distinguishing between different levels of bias, I find that the likelihood of mediation onset tends to increase if the potential mediator shares a closer political relationship with a conflicting state that has greater national capabilities or that is more authoritarian than the counterparty. However, the effect is largely conditional on the levels of the mediator’s bias, where a more obvious level of bias is more likely to facilitate mediation initiation. This article advances our understanding of bias and international conflict mediation.